Earlier this week The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change (TBI) published a report which said, that as far as an individual’s lifestyle is concerned, only minor changes are needed to deal with climate change, including some small changes to diet [1]
The TBI will have read the recent IPCC report [2] and are well aware of the seriousness of climate change. So why have they decided that such an unambitious response is appropriate?
It seems to me, after reading the report, to boil down to two things : the laws of physics do not have a vote, neither are they are part of the fossil fuel industry.
However the the laws of physics are far more influential than voters or lobbyists, and if they are not taken seriously will wreak the havoc that the inadequate suggestions of the TBI report are intended to avert.
There are two further things to note about the report.
It is based on false assumptions and it encourages complacency and inaction.
For example, the TBI report assumes that in the UK we currently emit around 7 tonnes CO2e greenhouse gases per person per year, that carbon capture technology will contribute to a net-zero balanced path, and that aircraft can continue to fly almost as much as they have in the past, largely powered by ‘sustainable’ biofuels
In fact this is not the case.
The UK per capita emissions are 12.7 tonnes CO2e [3], net-zero is a dangerous trap [4], and biofuels will threaten food supply for some of the most vulnerable populations in the world [5].
The UK also has a responsibility to remove some of its historic CO2 emissions from the atmosphere. But this does not seem to be considered by the TBI.
The unambitious proposals were echoed in reviews of the report.
Presumably the authors of the TBI report have welcomed headlines such as those in The Daily Mail, “Only ‘relatively minor’ changes are needed to cut UK’s greenhouse gas to net zero by 2050” [6]
And those in The Times: “Only small cuts in flying and driving needed to beat climate change, says Blair institute” [7]
The report is not the work of Climate change deniers; man-made climate change is readily acknowledged. But the effect of the report is surely to deter individuals from significant action.
The Tony Blair Institute appears to be more interested in saving business than saving the planet. Ultimately it will achieve neither
What does the report say about diet?
Some of the TBI report addresses vegetarian or vegan lifestyles, asserting we only need to reduce meat and dairy consumption by 20% over the next 15 years. This amounts to a reduction of 1.2% per year during that time.
In contrast, researchers at the University of Oxford found that cutting meat and dairy products from the diet could reduce an individual’s carbon footprint from food by up to 73 per cent [8], [9].
In the light of the Climate Emergency we should be aiming for this rather than the minor changes of the TBI
So for those still wondering about the question of Tony Blair’s veganism : probably not.
What does the science say ?
The annual mean atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration measured at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii continues to increase, reaching 416 ppm in July 2021, with no sign of a downturn. This is 48% above the pre-industrial levels
The clear implication is that there is a lot of work to do to reduce CO2e emissions and they should be reduced as fast as possible.
Instead the government and the TBI are aiming for what, in their minds, is political expediency.
[1] Planes, Homes and Automobiles: The Role of Behaviour Change in Delivering Net Zero, Brett Meyer, Tim Lord, August 21st, 2021
https://www.institute.global/insights/climate-and-energy/planes-homes-and-automobiles-role-behaviour-change-delivering-net-zero
[2] https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report.pdf
[3] https://www.pawprint.eco/eco-blog/average-carbon-footprint-uk
[4] https://theconversation.com/climate-scientists-concept-of-net-zero-is-a-dangerous-trap-157368
[5] https://www.lancaster.ac.uk/news/-we-can-feed-the-world-if-we-change-our-ways
[6] https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-9909243/amp/Only-relatively-minor-changes-needed-cut-UKs-greenhouse-gas.html
[7] https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/only-small-cuts-in-flying-and-driving-needed-to-beat-climate-change-says-blair-institute-rbr87jhw8
[8] https://science.sciencemag.org/content/360/6392/987
[9] https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/veganism-environmental-impact-planet-reduced-plant-based-diet-humans-study-a8378631.html
