The New Normal
With a heatwave settled over the UK and drought experienced in many parts of the country I am hearing the phrase, “We will have to get used to the New Normal”. It is true that the climate is changing and we will have to get used to these conditions, but to me this phrase also has a suggestion of resignation, powerlessness and acceptance.
The New Normal seems to say “Low river levels are bad, but, hey, you can still see some fish – not a lot we can do – try to adapt – maybe a hosepipe ban for a few weeks. Get used to it”.
And while the country warms to record levels, the government response has been mixed, both promoting renewable energy but also approving several fossil fuel projects since COP26 [1]
The drought is most keenly felt in Boston in Lincolnshire [2], but its MP, John Hayes, an advisor to an oil products trading company, says it is wrong to take precautions in heat waves [3]
The New Normal cannot be allowed to be normal
First, atmospheric Carbon Dioxide concentrations continue to grow relentlessly as shown by the readings from a global monitoring station [4]. Temperatures are high now, but they won’t stop here. 2030 will be hotter.
Second, it is a mistake to think that we can always adapt to what is coming [5]
Third, we can easily be lulled into thinking ‘Normal’ is synonymous with ‘Acceptable’, and that there is no requirement to change how we live.
We are seeing these conditions after just 1.2C of warming. And there are no signs that the trend is even slowing. Clearly conditions will get a lot worse. The recent United Nations IPCC reports contain scenarios where global temperatures rise by over 4C above pre-industrial levels by 2100. [6].
If we do continue with Business As Usual in this New Normal, not only could rivers disappear, but also viable agricultural land, forests, oceans, ultimately Civilisation. In short, everything in this world that is beautiful and that we value.
Follow the Science
Is this a justified concern? Many atmospheric and environmental scientists are clear that it is.
“The road we have long been travelling is deceptively easy, a smooth superhighway on which we progress with great speed, but at its end lies disaster.”
Rachel Carson, Silent Spring, 1962
“There are ample reasons to suspect that climate change could result in a global catastrophe. Analyzing the mechanisms for these extreme consequences could help galvanize action, improve resilience, and inform policy, including emergency responses”
Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios, August 2022 [7]
“The main causes of irreversible climate breakdown are burning fossil fuels (~80%) and animal agriculture (~15%). Therefore to stop irreversible climate breakdown we need to equitably restrict the fossil fuel and animal agriculture industries.”
“The fossil fuel industry is in the process of inconveniencing you about a billion times more than any climate activist”
Peter Kalmus, NASA Climate Scientist, July 2022 [8]
“A shift to economies supporting the greater good may be the only chance we have of preventing an increasingly dangerous, climate-changed world mutating into one of catastrophic climate breakdown that threatens the very fabric of civilisation, and perhaps the survival of humanity itself.”
Stop letting climate targets slide [9]
Bill McGuire, August 2022
Author of Hothouse Earth, 2022 [10]
So what has to change?
Clearly government policy and regulations on a global scale. The transition to a fossil-fuel free world is moving far too slowly, but only government action can facilitate the necessary speed.
Communities, and Individuals must examine their energy, transport, water and other resource choices.
For an individual, there are many options, but this blog post will focus on taking up a plant-based diet which is one of the most effective ways to reduce a Carbon Footprint [11].
It can be done immediately; it is effective from day 1 and requires no investment. And, in my opinion, the menus are better.
Of course, for some, it cannot be considered because of health and other reasons, or only partly taken up, But anyone thinking about their Carbon Footprint will give plant-based diets serious consideration.
References
The New Normal
[3] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/john-hayes-heatwave-snowflakes-cowards-b2124023.html
The New Normal cannot be allowed to be normal
[4] https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/mlo.html
[6] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01125-x
Follow the Science
[7] https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2108146119
[8] https://twitter.com/ClimateHuman/status/1553028026459234304
kalmus
[10] https://www.hive.co.uk/Product/Bill-McGuire/Hothouse-Earth–An-Inhabitants-Guide/27151448
What Has to Change
[11] Carbon Footprint Calculations
https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/5173021737940757099/5540753203156199325
